Analysis of corn market trends expected in 2022 (future corn price forecast)

Corn price forecast for 2022

Corn prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in 2022, but the volatility will intensify . In the long run, domestic grain stocks are at a low level, downstream procurement is becoming more difficult, and multiple substitutions and changes in the supply and demand of substitutes themselves will affect the trend of corn prices.

The addition of substitutes ensures sufficient market supply, but the periodic switching of feed raw materials between corn and substitutes will intensify market fluctuations in the future. In the short term, the slow progress of grain harvesting and the pressure of grain sales will be postponed. The mismatch between supply and demand will lead to a second bottoming out of corn prices.

In the medium term, competition between corn and substitutes is becoming increasingly fierce. As the price gap between corn and substitutes narrows , corn market share will recover, downstream purchases will increase, and prices will also rise.

  In addition, the purchase and sales pressure of corn produced in 2021 will be postponed, and the corn production situation in my country is expected to continue to improve in 2022. However, consumption will continue to grow, wheat feed substitution and corn imports may decline, and it is expected that the domestic corn market will generally maintain a high range of fluctuations in 2022.

Why are we optimistic about the corn market in 2022?

Overall supply affected

The regulation is to increase the soybean area, which will inevitably take up the corn area, and the overall supply will not increase. The deployment of the regulation of corn and soybeans has been completed this year.

Heilongjiang Province wants to continue to increase the soybean area by 10 million mu. To achieve this goal, there must be an increase in soybean grain subsidies to attract farmers. The planting area of ​​soybeans and corn is in a competitive relationship. If more soybeans are planted, the corn area will decrease.

Therefore, there may not be a retaliatory increase in corn acreage this year, and the overall supply will not be much higher. This will keep the supply and demand of corn in a tight balance, which is very good for corn prices .

Import shock substitute pressure becomes smaller

In 2021, the impact of import shocks and substitute wheat was quite significant, but as time goes by, the impact on domestic corn has weakened.

International grain prices have reached a high level, and imported corn is not necessarily cheap, with a lower price-performance ratio. Wheat has also remained at a high level, and the advantage of replacing corn has been greatly reduced.

The impact of these two aspects on corn is getting lower, making domestic corn more attractive and also beneficial to corn prices.

【 Kind tips 】

After last year's "losing money storm" (corn prices soared and plummeted), traders are operating with extra caution this year. Farmers are also taking risks and holding back on selling because of high planting costs and the emergence of favorable news from all sides of the market. For downstream grain-using enterprises, reducing procurement costs is an unchanging strategic direction based on rigid demand for stocking.

Therefore, everyone involved in the corn market needs to do these two things:

1. Keep abreast of market news, local market conditions, and price trends.

2. Sufficient customer and supply sources to expand sales channels and complete purchases at relatively low prices.